Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Nõudlusinflatsioon

 Nõudlusinflatsioon

 Kui rahvusliku majanduse üldpakkumine ei jõua üldnõudlusele järele siis hinnad tõusevad (ceteris paribus) – tekib nn nõudlustõmbeline inflatsioon – ja just see näib praegu meil eeskätt toimuvat (vt lisaks nt Mereste 2003).

 

Ja et miks Eesti majanduse pakkumise pool ei jõua praegu järele eeskätt välisnõudluse poolsele tärkavale tõusule, see on hästi lahtikirjutatud EL Komisjoni Sügisprognoosi* järgmises lõigus lk 82:

 

However, the

question remains of how much spare potential is

left in the economy, given that part of the existing

production capacity may no longer be usable after

the crisis and the readjustment of the economy.

The crisis also probably impacted on the level of

potential growth. The extent to which the current

high level of unemployment becomes structural

will be a significant determinant of potential

growth in the medium and long term. In addition,

the contribution to potential growth from capital

accumulation, while gradually rising, will remain

substantially lower than during the peak years of

the previous cycle, including due to servicing

accumulated liabilities. The contribution to growth

from improvements in technology, which was

likewise very high during the peak years of the

cycle, is highly uncertain looking forward. Overall,

this implies that potential growth will stay rather

subdued in Estonia in the coming years, reaching

barely a third of its pre-crisis rate in the medium

term”

     

Sõnaga – Eesti majanduse potentsiaalne kasv ehk pakkumise pool jääb lähiaastatel madalaks, seda eeskätt selle tõttu et oluline osa masu töötutest on tööturult pöördumatult  lahkunud ning osa kapitalidest/kasumitest on masuga kaduma läinud või kodumaisest majandusest välja kanditud. Seega lähiaastatel on Eestis oodata pakkumispoolset hinnatõusu, sest suhteliselt oluliselt sügavama majanduslangusega kui enamikul parterriikidel on Eesti majandusel arusaadavalt suhteliselt aeglasem ja heitlikum tõus kui enamikel partner-riikidel – kellede nõudlusee tõus ka madalama languse töttu varem tärkab ja ka meieni ulatub.

 PS: see et suheliselt sügavamat majanduslangust põhjustab eeskätt suheliselt käpardlikum majanduspoliitika koos suhteliselt ebakvaliteetsema majandusmudeliga – see vist ei vaja enam ülekordamist.

 *************************************************************************EL *Komisjoni Sügisprognoosi Eesti pt ilma tabeliteta:

6. ESTONIA

Post-crisis acceleration of growth

80

Robust growth since end-2009…

Following seven consecutive quarters of decline,

the Estonian economy turned to positive quarterly

growth at the end of 2009 and reached positive

annual growth rates by mid-2010. Quarterly

growth was particularly robust in the second

quarter of 2010, when it reached 1.9% (seasonally

and working day adjusted), the fastest since early

2007, while annual growth reached 4.7% in the

third quarter of the year, according to the latest

available information. The prospects of euro

adoption in 2011, confirmed in July 2010, have

been clearly supportive for overall confidence in

the Estonian economy.

So far the main contribution to growth has come

from external trade, as Estonia’s main export

partners – in particular Sweden, but also euro-area

economies, the other Baltics and Russia – have

been growing more strongly than previously

expected. The flexible nature of the Estonian

economy and the availability of factors of

production allowed Estonia to benefit promptly

from this rebound. The adjustment in costs that

took place in 2009 also contributed to the

improved competitiveness of the economy,

allowing Estonia to increase its share in global

trade.

While exports provided the main growth stimulus,

domestic demand continued to act as a drag on the

economy until mid-2010, with the exception of

stocks. The latter, extensively run down during

crisis years, were rebuilt to support expanding

external demand, contributing strongly to overall

growth in the first half of 2010. Resumption of

growth in fixed investment has been uneven, with

a firmer recovery in investment in equipment. On

the other hand, government investment was lower

than expected in the first half of 2010.

…is expected to continue in the short term,

with stronger demand contributing to some

reversal in the current account…

External demand is expected to remain one of the

principal determinants of growth in 2011 and

2012, with exports growing broadly in line with

demand growth in Estonia’s main export markets.

Private consumption is projected to start

supporting the recovery towards the end of 2010,

even though the full-year contribution will likely

remain negative. While positive annual growth is

expected to resume in 2011-12, it will remain

significantly below levels observed in pre-crisis

years. Nevertheless, private consumption is set to

benefit from demand that has been postponed due

to high precautionary saving during the crisis, in

particular in 2009, while growth in household

disposable income is expected to turn positive

from 2011. The household saving rate, while

decreasing, should remain positive over the

forecast horizon, contrary to the pre-crisis trend, as

households continue to repay accumulated

liabilities. Uncertainty around the saving behaviour

of households constitutes one of major risks to the

forecast, both on the upside and on the downside.

 

As with private consumption, fixed investment is

set to reach positive year-on-year growth by the

end of 2010. The growth in investment is expected

to accelerate in 2011 and remain robust in 2012.

Increasing external and domestic demand can be

satisfied partly by redeploying existing capacity:

although the utilisation rate reached its long-term

average by the third quarter of 2010, surveys still

point to availability of spare capacity. However, it

is likely that some available capacity, which will

not be suitable to support the new growth phase

given ongoing shifts in the output mix, will need to

be replaced. This implies an acceleration

in equipment investment in the short term, in

particular for new product lines. The extent to

which fixed investment rebounds following the

enormous contraction in 2008-2009 depends

Member States, Estonia

81

largely on financial sector confidence and lending

policy, as well as on the firming of the economic

outlook, thus constituting another uncertainty in

the forecast.

Recovery in both external and internal demand has

led to a pickup in import growth rates. This trend

is expected to continue in 2011 and 2012, reducing

somewhat the high level of current-account surplus

recorded in 2009. Moreover, recovering

profitability of companies in foreign ownership

will lead to a larger income account shortfall, with

a significant part of these profits being reinvested.

Overall this is expected to lead to annual GDP

growth higher than what was predicted in the

previous forecast, at 2.4% in 2010, accelerating to

4.4% in 2011 and at 3.5% in 2012. This growth

acceleration reflects a re-employment of available

production capacity, both capital and labour, but

also new investment.

…but can it be sustained in the medium and

long term?

The current growth acceleration largely relates to

the closure of the significant negative output gap

that emerged as a result of a combination of the

global financial crisis and reversal of the domestic

cycle. The negative output gap is estimated to be

over 10% of GDP in 2009, twice the level reached

during the recession in the late 90s. However, the

question remains of how much spare potential is

left in the economy, given that part of the existing

production capacity may no longer be usable after

the crisis and the readjustment of the economy.

The crisis also probably impacted on the level of

potential growth. The extent to which the current

high level of unemployment becomes structural

will be a significant determinant of potential

growth in the medium and long term. In addition,

the contribution to potential growth from capital

accumulation, while gradually rising, will remain

substantially lower than during the peak years of

the previous cycle, including due to servicing

accumulated liabilities. The contribution to growth

from improvements in technology, which was

likewise very high during the peak years of the

cycle, is highly uncertain looking forward. Overall,

this implies that potential growth will stay rather

subdued in Estonia in the coming years, reaching

barely a third of its pre-crisis rate in the medium

term.

Further challenges: labour market…

After peaking at 20.4% in early 2010,

unemployment (15-64) started to decline very

rapidly to 19.2% by the spring and 15.7% at end-

September. Job creation has been high since March

2010, highlighting the flexibility of the labour

market and the quality and speed of job

intermediation. The fall in unemployment is

expected to decelerate during the winter months,

before gaining pace again later in 2011, in line

with the projected acceleration in growth. In 2009,

nominal hourly wages contracted by around 3%

for the whole economy, while hourly wages in

public administration declined by around 5%. This

decline has, however, reversed in 2010 and

moderate nominal wage growth can be expected in

both 2011 and 2012.

Efforts are being made to further raise the

effectiveness of active labour market policies, in

particular: job mediation and job search guidance

efforts; measures to support job creation and

recruitment; and measures to preserve or restore

employability. Nevertheless, structural

unemployment is set to continue to rise in Estonia

over the forecast horizon, potentially leading to

premature wage pressures. In addition, the

availability of employment opportunities in other

EU countries could lead to a fall in the

economically active population, exposing

bottlenecks as labour demand rises.

…and rising prices

After a very low consumer price increase (0.2%) in

2009, HICP inflation has been on an upward trend

since the beginning of 2010. While initially the

increase mostly related to surges in energy prices,

including hikes in excise duties from July 2009

and January 2010, food prices have also started to

increase since early 2010. The latter reflected not

only a rise in global food prices, but increasingly

also a magnified domestic response to global

trends, possibly related to corporate intentions of

restoring profit margins after substantial losses,

small market size and the prevalence of short-term

contracts. Furthermore, growing food exports to

Russia, following adverse weather conditions there

in summer 2010, have reduced domestic supply in

Estonia.

Overall, global commodity price developments and

more limited domestic price pressures are expected

to lead to inflation of 2.7% in 2010, which is

expected to accelerate to 3.6% in 2011 before

European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2010

82

moderating to 2.3% in 2012. Domestic factors are

set to play an increasingly prominent role in price

developments in 2011 and 2012. Given the history

of relatively high inflation in Estonia prior to the

last downturn, there is a risk that current inflation

developments may affect expectations and, hence,

weigh on private consumption and recovery.

Public finances: uneven pattern in coming

years but overall sound

As a result of adverse economic developments in

2008 and 2009, tax revenue fell, while general

government expenditure as a share of GDP

increased by over 10 pps. in two years, reaching

a high of 45% of GDP in 2009. Comprehensive

fiscal consolidation, implemented especially from

the second half of 2009, helped to limit the

deterioration of public finances and was achieved

though a combination of permanent measures,

which constituted around two-thirds of total

consolidation, and some temporary measures to

deal with the more extreme – but also temporary –

effects of the crisis. As the economy improves,

some of these temporary measures will start to

expire. This in particular relates to the resumption

of state contributions to the funded mandatory

pension scheme and to lower dividends from stateowned

companies in 2011 and 2012, compared to

their level in 2009 and 2010. However, this

reversal is not expected to lead to a pronounced

deterioration in public finances.

The near-term fiscal outlook is markedly affected

by sizeable sales of so-called “Kyoto units”(71).

These transactions, signed in the course of 2010,

considerably improve the outlook for public

finances in that year, while environmental

investments funded by the sales will have an

opposite impact in 2011 and 2012. Without the

impact of those sales, the headline general

government deficit would have been fairly stable

over the forecast period, at 2.0% of GDP in 2010,

1.6% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012.

The outlook for the general government debt level,

which increases to 11.7% of GDP in 2012, reflects

an assumption that the deficit will be fully

financed by new borrowing, although in practice

part of the deficit could be financed through

running down existing reserves.

(71) An Assigned Amount Unit (AAU) is a tradable ‘Kyoto unit’

or ‘carbon credit’ representing an allowance to emit

greenhouse gases. AAUs are issued up to the level

specified in Annex 1 Party to the Kyoto Protocol. Due to

the initial comparison basis, Estonia received a higher

quota amount than needed given the current structure of the

economy, and is able to sell the surplus of the CO2 quota

allocated for the 2008-2012 commitment period.

detsember 7, 2010 - Posted by | Uncategorized

4 kommentaari »

  1. Alternatiivne tõlgendus oleks, et laenurahal ja otsestel välisinvesteeringutel toimunud majanduskasv, mida vedas paljuski kinnisvarasektor (ja sellega vahetult seotud tootmine), ei olnud pärast odava laenuraha kraanide kinni keeramist, enam jätkusuutlik. Paljud nendest, kes varem töötasid ehituses ei saa enam enda varasemaid oskusi oluliselt vähenenud finantseerimisvõimaluste tõttu rakendada. Ehitajad olid paljuski aga noored, kelle jaoks oli hea teenimisvõimalus märksa atraktiivsem kui kõrghariduse omandamine. Kui paljud nendest on valmis ja suutelised oma haridusteed jätkama ja kui paljud neist tõukavad ehitussektorist välja endast vanemaid ja oksuslikumaid töötajaid (koos kõrgema töötasuga), mis on paljudele tööandjatele vähem atraktiine, määrab ära ka töötuse tulevase arengu. Laenud tuleb aga tagasi maksta ja nende teenindamist ning uute investeeringute kaasamise võimalusest sõltub ka kapitalik akumulatsioon.

    Huvitav oleks teada, kui suure osa suheliselt sügavamast majanduslangust põhjustas Ülo Ennuste hinnangul eeskätt suheliselt käpardlikum majanduspoliitika.

    kommentaar kirjutas Jüri Saar | detsember 7, 2010 | Vasta

  2. vabandan selle artikli telegrammistiili – oleks tulnud pikemalt seletada et on inflatsioonikolmik:

    nõudlusinflatsioon
    pakkumisinflatsioon ehk kuluinflatsioon
    maksuinflatsioon

    ja et inflatsioon on osa hinnataseme tõusust nn puhas hinnatõus, ülejäänud on väärtusepõhiline ehk hinnalisemate kaupade turule tulekuga seotud tõus; seejuures puhast hinnatõusu arvutatakse praktikas mitmes versioonis (nt meil elamispinna turuhinna tõusu inflatsiooni sisse ei arvestata)

    ja et need toimivad kombineeritult kuid muutuvate osakaaludega

    praegu meil maksudepõhine komponent on ilmselt nõrk ja põhiline on nõudluse-pakumise elastsuste mäng

    nii või teisiti – nagu kriisi alguses olime stagflatsioonis nii ka jälle praegu

    stagfatstsiooni puhul on põhiküsimuseks sellest välja pääsemine – muide kompleksküsimus – mis peaks mittekäpardlikes majandusplatvormides olema tsentraalsel kohal

    kommentaar kirjutas Ülo Ennuste | detsember 8, 2010 | Vasta

  3. […] b)    samas inflatsioon jätkas meil teises poolaastas tõusu ning novembris oli aastaselt juba üle 5% (http://www.stat.ee/sddsest) mis üle 2,5 korra ületas euroala keskmist ja oli kogu euroliidu tipus – isegi hullem kui Kreekas. Tõenäoselt inflatsioonitõusu tingis eeskätt nn välisnõudluse tõmme kriisist väljunud riikide poolt – aga meie kõvasti langenud majanduspotentsiaali tõttu meie pakkumispool ei jõudnud nõudluse tõusule järele, mida on hõiatanud ka EL Komisjoni Sügisprognoos 2010 (vt lisaks https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/noudlusinflatsioon/). […]

    Pingback-viide kirjutas Kriisipõhjases stagflatsioonis on adekvaatsed akuutsed makrokriteeriumid ning lühiperioodid « Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid | detsember 10, 2010 | Vasta


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