Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Au ja kiitus Maruste’le

 

Parim analüüs on kriitika: Rait Maruste „Üksi või koos“

 (PM 26.VI 12 lk 12)

Ülaloleva pealkirja algus on parafraseering G. Friedman’i raamatu* Epiloogist – ja muide Maruste see essee seostub nimetet raamatuga rohkemgi (sellest allpool)

Maruste „Aastane kogemus riigikogus näitab, et selles on veel arenguruumi.“ Tõepoolest nii. Maruste toob esimeseks näiteks Õiguskantsleri selle järjekordse robinsonaadi (K. Hänni termin) kus kantsleri viimatine aastaaruanne Riigikogus kujunes juriidiliselt hoopiski vastupidiseks – Riigikogu aruandeks Õiguskantslerile.

Siia jääb lisada et arenguruumi on Riigikogus kõvasti nt ka makroökonoomika vallas: ilmselt suuresti ka Riigikogu ebapädevuse tõttu sattus Eesti ühte Euroopa  sügavamasse majanduskriisi 2008-9 (nt 2008 kehtestati nn Ligi-Padari „avansilise tulumaksu nuriseadus“ mis pidi eelarvetulude laekumist vähendama 2009 miljardites kroonides – mingi ime läbi tühistati enne jõustumist – ja mis oleks veelgi võimendanud maksuseadustiku tasakaalustamatust lisaks kõlvatule 0-kasumiaksu seadusele jne). Ilmselt on ka selle põhjuseks et Eesti on kriisiga langenud jätkusuutmatute perifeeriariikide hulka (viimatises Eurostati ühes aruanandes näeb AIC PPS näidu alusel liikmesriikide järjestus altpoolt välja järgmiselt: Bulgaaria, Rumeenia, Läti ja Eesti – NB nii Leedu, Ungari kui ka Poola on heaolult kindlalt kõrgematel kohtadel) samas kui Riigikogu poolt ikka kuuldub kehkenpükslikke säutse meie juhtivast rollist eduka kokkuhoiu alal (mitte sõnagi kapitali ja tööjõu anomaalsest lekkimisest väljamaadesse jne).

Mis veelgi hullem näib olevat riigikaitse värkidega: kui natukenegi mõelda  riigireeturi Simm’i robinsonaadi  peale kus oli võimalik meie valitsuskorralduses nii pikalt ühte suurimat käkki NATO ajaloos kokku keerata ja  Eesti niigi madalat vaese toetava paipoisi renomeed suurriikide silmis solkida (muide raamatus* on põhiliselt ühed sõltumatud inertsiaalsed futuroloogilised nägemused et juba mõne aastaga on oodata NLi Bloki taastamise elavnemist ja seejuures USA näib kindlalt sellele  vastu asuvat eeskätt Poola kaitsmisel – Baltikum näib selles mängus jälle jäävat peenraha rolli et vist hiljem jälle kaasa aidata Bloki kiiremale lagunemisele) – siis Simmi tegevust aitas ilmselt hägustada see et tema tegevusvaldkonnas ministreid vahetati nagu triiksärke.

Maruste artikli kõige apostlikumaks sõnumiks peaksin lõiku „Kuid ei maksa olla ka enfante terrible. Häda on selles, et 1,3-miljonilise rahva ressurss informeeritud valikuteks ja otsustuste mõjutamiseks [ELis, üe] on väga väike.“ – jääb vaid makroökonoomiliselt õiendada et väga suur häda on juba näha selles et ESM ühe elemendi Euroopa Semestri raames ei vaevuta väikeste perifeeriariikide makroökonoomilise tasakaalu probleemidega tegeleda ning nende tegevust teaduspõhiselt küllalt põhjalikult koordineerida – seda eriti kahetsusväärselt majandusmehhanismide reformimise alal (eeskätt maksusüsteemide alal mis Põhiseaduse järgi ei kuulu rahvahääletuse alla vaid asjatundjate pädevusse ja seega taolised alad ei peaks kuuluma ka õiguskantslerite agendadesse) – alal kus meie teadmuspõhine ressurss on peaaegu olematu – kus juhtivad poliitikud pole enamuses üldse teadlikud makroökonoomika olemasolust ja teadmuskeskkonnas kus igasuguseid nukataguseid  küsitlusi peetakse uuringuteks ning ilma teise kraadita tegelasi tituleeritakse lahedalt majandusteadlasteks.

 

*en.Wikipedia:

The Next 100 Years is a 2009 non-fiction book by George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.

[Overview

Friedman predicts a second American cold war with Russia in the 2010s. Russia will ally with Germany, will make attempts to expand its sphere of influence, and will continue to build up its military to the point where it can pose a challenge to the United States. Friedman asserts that around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern European countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of Poland, the Czech RepublicHungary, and Romania, who may form a Polish-led military alliance during this period, which Friedman refers to as the “Polish Bloc”. According to Friedman’s prediction, around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a second cold war.

Around this time, 2020, China will politically and culturally fragment as well, according to Friedman’s prediction. Friedman asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society that will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. Friedman asserts that China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.

In the 2020s, and 2030’s, three main powers will emerge in EurasiaTurkeyJapan, and Poland. Turkey will expand its sphere of influence into the Arab world, which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and into what was once Russia and the former Soviet Union, Japan will expand its influence to Chinese regions and many Pacific Islands, and Poland will continue to dominate Eastern Europe through the “Polish Bloc”. The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that Japan and Turkey will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. Friedman also speculates that Germany and Mexico may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, however, he thinks it generally unlikely. Friedman states that in this conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the “Polish Bloc”, and probably with ChinaIndia,a united Korea and Britain which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France and Germany side with Turkey as well.

Friedman predicts a third world war between these two coalitions sometime around 2050. He asserts that the war will probably be started by a coordinated sneak attack against the United States and its allies by the Japanese and Turkish empires. He states that the war will be a form of limited war, and that it will be very different in its conduct than a total war, such as World War II of the 20th century. He predicts that the United States and its allies will win, that the war will last two to three years, and that it will cost somewhere around 50,000 lives. Friedman predicts after the war, the United States will enjoy a properous decade in the 2060s due to the fact that no nation could challenge it at this time and that a new alternative to energy from solar spaced based power systems would redefine the use of power and resources.

Friedman predicts that in the decades following the war, starting in the 2070s, tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise. By this time, many parts of the United States, especially the South West, will become predominantly, ethnically, culturally and socially Mexican. The United States would start seeing immigration decades after the immigration policies of 2030, as a problem, and that starting in the 2030s, Mexican immigrants will begin behaving like an extension of their homeland living in occupied territory rather than an immigrant community in a foreign nation. During this period, Mexican economic growth and population growth will be substantial, Friedman asserts. Mexico will be in a position to militarily and geopolitically challenge the United States for dominance of North America, which he predicts will remain the center of gravity for the global system throughout the next few centuries, in the last quarter of the 21st century. The conflict will likely continue into the 22nd Century.

Friedman also makes many cultural and technological predictions for the 21st century.

juuni 26, 2012 - Posted by | Uncategorized

1 kommentaar »

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    kommentaar kirjutas Levi | august 8, 2012 | Vasta


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