Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Vend Mattheuse 3 commonsens ilmutust

Vend Mattheuse 3 commonsens ilmutust

PM 31.VIII 13 arvamuste peatükis 10-nendamalt leheküljel loeme:

•    Meie majanduse võti on meie ekspordivõimekus – see tooks raha riiki sisse, suurendaks meie tööviljakust ja tooks kaasa ka palgakasvu ning heaolu.*

•    Rahvastiku vananemise ja ettevõtlikuma osa väljarände taustal ei ole mõtet viidata rahva mingile müütilisele elujõule, mis pärast Liivi sõda Eestimaa nagu imekombel rahvaga täitis, ja uskuda, et see juhtub nüüdki. Aeg on paraku teine.**

•    Kui ka rahva müütiline elujõud on nõrgenenud, siis rahva common sense, terve mõistus, toimib endiselt. Sest iga rahvas tahab ju rahvana püsima jääda ja on valmis selle nimel tegutsema. Meie lähiminevik ja Eesti riigi taastamine näitab, et see common sense on meil olemas.***

******************************************************************

*Oh olgu me rahvas õnnistet et ainult üks võti teeb lahti meile kõik heaolu uksed – kiidet olgu meie saatus ja meie Venna ettenägelikkus meid valgustada

**Oh anna meile jõudu imet uskuda et aeg on küll teine kui pärast Liivi sõda aga et see üks võti ikkagi müütiliselt keerab kõik uksed meile lahti

***Sest selle võtme nimi on see common sens ja seda me pole isegi mitte riigi taastamise käigus ära kaotanud****

****Et aeg on paraku teine siis lisaks võiks vaadata tagavaravõtmeid mida ka rahvaküsitlusi mitte millekski pidava patuse EL Komisjoni köögipoole kasutatakse meie tuleviku küpsetamisel nt – ja kus kirje 1.6 ongi toodete ja teenuste ekspordi juurdekasvu indeks: nt 2013 on 4,2% ja 2014 on isegi juba 6,2%. Vt detailsemalt:

 

Main economic indicators 2001-2014

81. Estonia

(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1. Growth of GDP and its components (real)

1.1 Private consumption 7.0 9.5 9.2 8.1 9.5 13.5 8.8 -5.2 -14.8 -2.4 3.5 4.4 3.3 3.5

1.2 Government consumption 2.7 3.4 6.3 1.1 3.2 5.0 6.6 4.6 -1.9 -0.8 1.4 4.0 0.8 0.3

1.3 Gross fixed capital formation 13.1 24.2 16.7 6.0 15.2 23.0 9.3 -13.3 -38.3 -7.4 25.7 21.0 3.0 7.3

1.4 of which equipment 15.9 25.6 27.0 -3.3 2.1 32.9 12.2 -20.4 -55.0 2.2 102.7 14.9 9.5 11.7

1.5 of which construction 9.6 23.3 7.8 15.4 26.3 16.1 7.1 -10.4 -30.5 -9.9 -6.2 26.4 -2.7 2.8

1.6 Exports of goods and services 4.0 -2.7 7.7 14.5 18.6 6.1 3.7 1.0 -20.6 22.9 23.4 5.6 4.1 6.2

1.7 Imports of goods and services 4.8 7.2 11.2 14.7 18.9 13.9 6.3 -7.0 -32.0 21.0 25.0 9.1 3.6 5.9

1.8 GDP 6.3 6.6 7.8 6.3 8.9 10.1 7.5 -4.2 -14.1 3.3 8.3 3.2 3.0 4.0

2. Demand components: Contribution to changes in GDP (%)

2.1 Consumption 4.4 6.0 6.3 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.9 -2.0 -8.5 -1.5 2.1 3.0 1.9 1.9

2.2 Investment 3.4 6.4 5.0 1.9 4.7 7.4 3.4 -4.7 -11.6 -1.6 4.9 4.6 0.8 1.8

2.3 Stockbuilding -0.7 2.3 -0.3 0.9 -0.2 1.4 0.8 -3.5 -2.1 4.1 2.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0

2.4 Domestic demand 7.1 14.6 11.0 7.6 10.4 17.1 10.1 -10.3 -22.2 1.1 9.2 7.3 2.6 3.7

2.5 Exports 3.4 -2.1 5.5 10.0 13.6 4.7 2.7 0.7 -14.7 14.9 18.6 5.1 3.8 5.7

2.6 Final demand 10.5 12.5 16.5 17.6 24.0 21.8 12.8 -9.6 -36.9 16.0 27.7 12.4 6.3 9.4

2.7 Imports -4.2 -5.9 -8.7 -11.3 -15.1 -11.7 -5.3 5.3 24.0 -12.4 -18.2 -8.0 -3.3 -5.4

2.8 Net exports -0.8 -8.0 -3.3 -1.2 -1.5 -7.0 -2.6 6.0 9.4 2.5 0.4 -2.9 0.5 0.3

3. Gross savings and investment in % of GDP at current prices

3.1 Private sector savings 18.7 16.2 15.8 16.6 18.4 16.2 15.3 18.2 20.0 21.1 22.7 20.7 21.3 22.3

3.2 Net savings of households -2.2 -3.4 -3.7 -6.4 -5.4 -6.4 -4.1 -2.2 3.3 0.3 -0.1 : : :

3.3 General government savings 4.3 5.7 6.0 5.1 5.3 6.8 7.6 3.2 2.0 2.1 3.4 4.3 4.1 3.7

3.4 National savings 22.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 23.6 23.0 22.9 21.4 22.0 23.3 26.1 25.0 25.4 26.0

3.5 Gross capital formation 27.9 32.3 33.1 33.1 33.8 38.7 38.6 30.0 18.5 20.3 24.8 27.6 27.2 27.6

3.6 Current account -5.0 -10.4 -11.4 -11.4 -10.1 -15.7 -15.7 -8.5 4.2 3.2 0.6 -3.1 -2.2 -2.0

4. Determinants of investment

4.1 Capacity utilisation (survey) (a) 66.8 72.4 74.5 73.9 74.7 77.3 78.6 77.0 70.6 58.5 67.3 72.5 72.5 :

4.2 Trend GDP gap -2.1 -1.8 0.0 0.8 4.6 10.6 14.8 7.0 -10.1 -9.0 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 0.8

4.3 Potential GDP gap 2.3 2.8 3.9 3.4 5.5 9.3 12.0 4.6 -9.4 -6.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.3

4.4 Profitability index (1961-1973 = 100) : : : : : : : : : : : : : :

5. Growth potential

5.1 Growth of net capital stock (real) 6.3 8.0 9.1 8.6 9.3 11.3 11.1 7.4 1.9 1.2 2.7 4.2 4.1 4.4

5.2 Net capital/output ratio (real) 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1

5.3 Growth of capital intensity 5.4 6.6 7.6 8.6 7.2 5.6 10.2 7.2 13.3 6.3 -4.0 1.9 3.7 3.4

5.4 Labour productivity growth 5.4 5.1 6.3 6.4 6.7 4.5 6.6 -4.3 -4.5 8.5 1.2 1.0 2.7 3.0

5.5 Total factor productivity growth 2.7 1.9 2.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 1.7 -7.5 -10.1 5.3 3.2 0.0 0.9 1.3

6. Employment and unemployment

6.1 Employment 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.0 2.0 5.4 0.8 0.2 -10.0 -4.8 7.0 2.2 0.3 1.0

6.2 Activity rate 72.4 71.5 72.4 72.2 72.2 75.2 75.5 76.5 76.2 75.9 77.2 77.8 78.3 79.2

6.3 Employment rate 63.3 64.2 65.1 65.3 66.5 70.8 72.0 72.3 65.8 63.2 67.6 69.9 70.7 72.1

(benchmark)

6.4 Employment rate : : : : : : : : : : : : : :

(full-time equivalent)

6.5 Unemployment rate 12.6 10.3 10.1 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.6 5.5 13.8 16.9 12.5 10.2 9.7 9.0

(Eurostat definition)

7. Prices and wages

7.1 Nominal wages per head 9.6 9.1 11.6 12.3 10.8 14.0 25.0 9.7 -3.2 1.8 -0.2 6.7 5.7 6.1

7.2 Real wages per head (b) 3.1 5.5 9.9 8.7 6.6 8.4 15.8 1.7 -1.9 -0.8 -5.0 3.1 2.3 2.8

7.3 Nominal unit labour costs 4.0 3.8 5.0 5.5 3.8 9.1 17.2 14.6 1.4 -6.2 -1.4 5.6 2.9 3.0

7.4 Real unit labour costs -2.3 -0.8 0.9 1.0 -2.1 0.3 5.0 8.7 2.8 -6.8 -4.2 2.3 -0.2 -0.3

7.5 GDP deflator 6.5 4.7 4.0 4.5 6.1 8.8 11.6 5.4 -1.4 0.7 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.3

7.6 Private consumption deflator 6.3 3.5 1.6 3.3 3.9 5.2 7.9 7.8 -1.3 2.6 5.0 3.4 3.3 3.2

7.7 Terms of trade 1.9 2.9 2.8 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.9 -0.8 -0.7 -2.0 -3.1 -0.6 0.0 0.1

8. General government budget, % of GDP

8.1 Expenditure 34.8 35.8 34.8 34.0 33.6 33.6 34.0 39.7 45.5 40.7 38.3 40.5 39.6 37.6

8.2 Current revenues 34.7 36.0 36.5 35.6 35.2 36.1 36.4 36.7 43.5 40.9 39.5 40.2 39.3 37.8

8.3 Net borrowing (-) or lending (+) -0.1 0.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.4 -2.9 -2.0 0.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.2

8.4 Net borrowing cyclically adjusted -0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -4.3 0.8 2.0 1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2

8.5 Debt (end of period) 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.5 7.2 6.7 6.2 10.1 10.2 9.6

9. Monetary conditions

9.1 Long-term interest rate 10.2 8.4 5.3 4.4 4.2 5.0 6.1 8.2 7.8 5.9 : : : :

9.2 Short-term interest rate 5.3 3.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 3.2 4.9 6.7 5.9 1.6 1.4 0.6 : :

9.3 Yield curve (9.1-9.2) 4.8 4.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 4.3 : : : :

9.4 Real long-term interest rate (c) 3.4 3.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -3.5 -5.0 2.6 9.3 5.1 : : : :

9.5 Nominal effective exchange rate 1.7 0.7 3.2 0.9 -0.1 0.2 1.1 1.4 2.4 -3.0 -0.4 -1.5 0.5 0.0

9.6 Real effective exchange rate 84.6 87.1 92.9 98.4 100.0 107.3 122.9 135.2 135.3 125.2 121.6 123.5 125.5 127.1

(2005=100; ULC in total economy)

(a) Manufacturing industry

(b) Private consumption deflator

(c) GDP deflator*****

 

*****Ja üks retsepti raamat sealjuures näeb välja niimoodi: http://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2013/07/25/koening-wageneri-filigraansemaid-teoreeme-kapitalitulude-suboptimaalse-maksustamise-kahjulikkusest/

 

Ja eks seda retsepti võiks ka rahvaküsitlusele panna kui PS pr 106 tühistada.

juuli 31, 2013 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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