Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Visand 23.VII 14

Miks Must Luik saabus? (Visand 23.VII 14)

‘‘How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated

the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must

be the truth?’’ (Sherlock Holmes to Watson, Doyle, 1890).

 

Teatamatu teadmatuse realiseerumise (nt MH17 katastroofi toimumine 17.VII 14 Kagu-Ukainas) asjaolude selgitamine on analoogiline ja sama keerukas kui eeloleva teadmatuse selgitamine (vt nt*).

Jämedalt siin on siiski olulisim eeskätt saabuva tagantjärgi tarkusest tulenevate teadete tõesuse arvutamine millele ilmselt ka Sherlock vihjas: ilmselt on vaja tõesuse hindamiseks kõigepealt Bayes’likult** arvesse võtta komplekselt a) allika usaldusväärsust ehk kallutatust ning subjektiivsust b) allika asjakohast teadmusmahtu kompetentsust c) allika asjakohast objektiivset loogilisust ehk kompleksanalüüsi võimekust või hoopiski subjektiivselt hägusloogikaga manipuleerimist*** …

Selge et teate edastaja peab iga teade varustama vastava tõesuse indeksiga ning sotsiaalmeedia omakorda edastaja vastavaid moraalseid takse hindama (nt eriti meil massimeedias praktiseeritavat tekstide pealkirjade räiget moonutamist) jne.

Väga toorelt nt kui levitatav allikas teatab et regullatne lennuk oli laaditud ca kolmesaja laibaga siis nt meedia poolt tuleks lisada nt allika TõesusIndeks= (a=1/3)(b=1/3)(c=1/3) oleks umbes vahemikus (1/15 – 1/40) – kus arv 3 on standardveaga. Lugeja omakorda peaks otsustamiseks juurde arvutama levitaja kallutatuse jne. Sama mõttekäik käiks ka selle väitja kohta kes soovitas et THI oleks pidanud mõne putinidioodist bluusiiniseja ära kägistama jne.

Asi on nimelt selles et asjatundmatu publik üldiselt ei ole ise suuteline erakordsete seikade puhul tegema vahet teadete tõesuse vahel ja selle vahel et objektiivse asjatundja ja vassiva asjatundmatu otsustusi tuleb võtta arvesse erinevate olulisuskaaludega – ja see tekitab avalikkuses tohutu teadmus hägususe mis võib viia oluliste rahvuslike kahjustusteni****.

*) Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach

to management decision-making

Alberto Feduzi a,b,c,, Jochen Runde b,1

a Department of Financial and Management Studies, SOAS University of London, Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK

b Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK

c Department of Economics, University of Rome III, Via Silvio D’Amico 77, Rome 00145, Italy

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:

Received 29 April 2013

Accepted 7 April 2014

Available online 5 May 2014

Accepted by Francesca Gino

Keywords:

State space construction

Unknown unknowns

Black swans

Inductive methods

Organisational and management

decision-making

Cognitive biases

a b s t r a c t

Bayesian decision theory and inference have left a deep and indelible mark on the literature on management

decision-making. There is however an important issue that the machinery of classical Bayesianism

is ill equipped to deal with, that of ‘‘unknown unknowns’’ or, in the cases in which they are actualised,

what are sometimes called ‘‘Black Swans’’. This issue is closely related to the problems of constructing

an appropriate state space under conditions of deficient foresight about what the future might hold,

and our aim is to develop a theory and some of the practicalities of state space elaboration that addresses

these problems. Building on ideas originally put forward by Bacon (1620), we show how our approach

can be used to build and explore the state space, how it may reduce the extent to which organisations

are blindsided by Black Swans, and how it ameliorates various well-known cognitive biases.

_ 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

 

**) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

 

***) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic

 

****) http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf

juuli 23, 2014 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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