Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Versioon: A few fallacies

(Versioon 18.III 15 – siin ingl sest selles on erinevusi vastavast e.k publikatsioonist)

A few fallacies and misleading in the publication: The Estonian Balance of Payments, International Investment Position and Gross External Debt for 2014 (March 11 2015)

  • Portfolio investment assets increased strongly, while liabilities grew more modestly and

there was a net outflow of half a million (sic! correct: billion, üe) euros in capital in the form of portfolio investment.“: see the Estonian version Eesti 2014. aasta maksebilanss, rahvusvaheline investeerimispositsioon ja koguvälisvõlg

  • In the Tables (BPM6 format) net outflows of assets from domestic economy are defined as positive values/quantities – these definitions are at variance with the Modern Macroeconomics Basic Principals (primary are national welfare sustainability risks and economic inequality moderations and cybernetic social mechanism designs (not omitting environmental risks and  possible moral hazard, incompetence, ignorance of the agents  – and the investment positions and balances of payments follow secondary etc) – and misleading in the context  of the advancement of domestically applicable national net income NNI – especially in the EU periphery member states (in Estonia recently domestic investments pc are times lower compared to the EA18 and it is strange to read in this context interpretations that “capital net outflows are positive phenomena” ) – in the cases of member countries with the non-existence of scale effect – in the cases where the dis-balances in the international investment positions are rational in the subregional context: see e.g.: http://www.bruegel.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/866-analysis-of-developments-in-eu-capital-flows-in-the-global-context/
  • „The growth in direct investment assets was driven by the extensive lending by direct investment based in Estonia to their parent companies abroad.“: this statement seems to be fabricated on the basis of subjective fuzzy logic – exactly as in the Estonian version – perhaps to fuzzy the Shameful fact that:

„The Estonian economy was a net lender (sic! mainly to the rich core EA18 members, üe) in 2014, as it had been in 2013, and by a similar amount.“ (are the amounts 152 and 445 really similar (Statistics Estonia Table RAA014 B9))

 

      Shameful fact first of all because this anomaly is mainly caused by sub-optimal capital controls of fraudulent capital flows – and secondly – presently legally in force obscurant-populist moral hazard 0-profit tax system that may facilitate multi-national banks and -corporations to commit corporate tax frauds and perhaps even macro-corruptions – and – it seems it will here stay all the same in the coming progressive ECB QE policy conditions and causing further divergence (even according to The Economist prognosis) – see also e.g.: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No11/articles/08_Ulo_Ennuste

märts 18, 2015 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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