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Idu-riigi* riskid hübriidsõjas – T. Kotka „E-residentsus, riiklik idufirma“ MP 12.X 15 lk13

  • SA tabelist kõige viimaste andmete alusel 2013 kohta:

http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/Database/Majandus/03Ettevetete_majandusnaitajad/12Valismaised_tutarettevotted/12Valismaised_tutarettevotted.asp

näeme et juba enne hübriidsõja algust 2013 Venemaa kontrolli all olevad ettevõtted Eestis tulumaksu praktiliselt ei maksnud – samas kui keskmiselt välismaised ettevõtted tegid seda 11% ulatuses – seega juba siis ropult koorisid Eesti rahvuslikku majandust meie maksuseaduste auke kasutades (muide EL Komisjoni terminites on see EV poolne subsideerimine hübriidsõja antagonisti siinsetele ettevõtetele); EP Statistikas on olemas kah juba 2014 maksebilansi statistika:

http://statistika.eestipank.ee/?lng=et#listMenu/1950/treeMenu/MAKSEBIL_JA_INVPOS/145/436

millest näeme et hübriidsõja esimesel aastal toimus tohutu hüpe Eestist nt muude investeeringute välismaale slikerdamise (nt õiglasest kasumimaksust möödahiilimisega) osas (ligemale 1,5 miljardit eurot juurdekasvu võrreldes 2013 aastaga – palju sellest läks Venemaale seda EP ei avalda) ning sh ligemale pool miljardit netolaene välismaale antud – muide 2015 juba teise kvartali jooksul samas kaliibris neto-laene välismaale antud

  • Seega Kotka’ laused:

„Eesti riik on rikkam, kui Eesti majandus kasvab. Eesti majandus kasvab, kui tuleb juurde uusi ettevõtteid ja juba olemasolevad paisuvad veelgi. … Rikkamad ettevõtted = rikkam riik, nii lihtne see ongi. “ –

On üdini valed ja seda eriti juba kuumas hübriidsõjas sulgkaalus rinderiigi olukorras – sest kui  Eesti majandus (praeguse käpardliku teaduslageda tasakaalutu maksusüsteemi kehtimisel) kasvab üleliigselt (sic!)  välismaalaste/antagonistide/pagulaste kontrolli all olevates ettevõtetes – seda vaesemaks Eesti rahvuslik kodumaine majandus jääb – rääkimata usaldusväärsuse kärbumisest ning niigi seega kidura konkurentsivõime langusest – potentsiaalse GDP kahanemisest seoses majandusliku ebavõrdsuse suurenemisega ja sotsiaalkapitali langusest tööjõu- ning investeeringute pagemisega sõnaga jätkusuutlikkuse ketlikkuse riskide süvenemisega

  • Kotka’ ainuke viide kui suurvaimule on ühele poliitajakirjanikule E.L. kui „majandusajakirjanikule“ on samuti mitmes mõttes eksitav:

Samas nii Keynes juba 1936 kui Wiener 1948 („kus on palju sulisid (sh poliitikud) seal on ka palju lolle“ seda sotsiaalküberneetilisest rakursist) ja viimati Stiglitz 2015 on hoiatanud eriti väikeriike ülemäärase/ülejõukäiva innovatsiooni eest ning liigse majandustegevuse laiendamise eest sh lahkesti igat masti rahvusvaheliste sulide ning eriti hübriidsõjas kiskjalike antagonistagentide kokkukutsumise ning moosimise (maksuparadiisina) arvel.

Igal juhul Kotka peaks silmas pidama Fukuyama’ õpetust et reformid/innovatsioonid tulevad teha ratsionaalses järjekorras – seega Eestis esmalt likvideerida rahvuslikku kodumaist majandust vaesustav  ja konkurensivõimekuse illusioone ** kehitav 0-kasumimaks ja alles sellejärgi asuma majandust laiendama – ja – seda mitte mingil juhul hägus sõja riskidele liituvate täiendavate riskidega nt kriminaalsete suunitlustega e-residentide masside kohalemeelitamisega – eeskätt jätkusuutmatute kasumimaksu paradiisi loosungite lehvitamisega.

*) https://et.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idufirma – igal juhul suure riskiga mis väikesele niigi liigse etnilise konfliktse etnilise heterogeensusega rahvusriigile hübriidsõja tingimustes hägusloogilise antagonistidega – tõeliste suurvaimude järgi (nagu nt tänane MajandusNobelist**)  sugugi sünnis ei pruugi olla vaesuse vähendamisel :==)

**)

Scientific Background on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2015

ANGUS DEATON: CONSUMPTION, POVERTY AND WELFARE

The Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

THE ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, founded in 1739, is an independent organisation whose overall objective is to promote the sciences

and strengthen their influence in society. The Academy takes special responsibility for the natural sciences and mathematics, but endeavours to promote

the exchange of ideas between various disciplines.

BOX 50005 (LILLA FRESCATIVÄGEN 4 A), SE-104 05 STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN

TEL +46 8 673 95 00, INFO@KVA.SE  HTTP://KVA.SE

 

The consumption of goods and services is a fundamental determinant of human welfare. The

distribution of consumption among individuals has a bearing on many important issues –

including inequality and poverty – in society’s economic, political and social domains. In most

countries, aggregate consumption is the largest component of aggregate demand and, as such,

accounts for much of the time variation in economic activity. For a given level of income,

consumption determines savings and thus investment through the supply of capital. It is thus

quite natural that consumption has been at the center of economic research throughout the last

century.

Over the last three to four decades, the study of consumption has progressed enormously. While

many scholars have contributed to this progress, Angus Deaton stands out. He has made several

fundamental and interconnected contributions that speak directly to the measurement, theory,

and empirical analysis of consumption. His main achievements are three.

First, Deaton’s research brought the estimation of demand systems – i.e., the quantitative study

of consumption choices across different commodities – to a new level of sophistication and

generality. The Almost Ideal Demand System that Deaton and John Muellbauer introduced 35

years ago, and its subsequent extensions, remain in wide use today – in academia as well as in

practical policy evaluation.

Second, Deaton’s research on aggregate consumption helped break ground for the microeconometric

revolution in the study of consumption and saving over time. He pioneered the

analysis of individual dynamic consumption behavior under idiosyncratic uncertainty and

liquidity constraints. He devised methods for designing panels from repeated cross-section data,

which made it possible to study individual behavior over time, in the absence of true panel data.

He clarified why researchers must take aggregation issues seriously to understand total

consumption and saving, and later research has indeed largely come to address macroeconomic

issues through microeconomic data, as such data has increasingly become available.

Third, Deaton spearheaded the use of household survey data in developing countries, especially

data on consumption, to measure living standards and poverty. In so doing, Deaton helped

transform development economics from a largely theoretical field based on crude macro data, to

a field dominated by empirical research based on high-quality micro data. He showed the value

of using consumption and expenditure data to analyze welfare of the poor, and identified

shortcomings when comparing living standards across time and place.

Deaton’s research has addressed issues of great practical significance, and his contributions have

influenced policymaking in developing and developed countries. His work covers a wide

spectrum, from the deepest implications of theory to the grittiest detail of measurement. The

common themes are connecting theory and measurement, and linking micro and macro data by

using relevant statistical methods.

This document presents the three pillars of Deaton’s research. Section 1 surveys his analysis of

demand across commodities at a given point in time, with a focus on Deaton and Muellbauer’s

Almost Ideal Demand System. Section 2 discusses his most important contributions on aggregate

consumption across time, with a focus on the use of individual (or household-level) data and

careful handling of the aggregation problem. Section 3 deals with Deaton’s contributions to

welfare measurement in developing countries, with a focus on measurement and analysis of the

living standards of the poor. Section 4 briefly mentions a couple of related contributions.

oktoober 12, 2015 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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