Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Kiri 28.V 16

Meie „düstoopia“

Algselt ilmselt Inglismaal vermitud termin – vt nt OED:

“Dystopia”. Oxford English Dictionary (3rd ed.). Oxford University Press. September 2005. …  According to the Oxford English Dictionary, a “dystopia” is: “An imaginary place or condition in which everything is as bad as possible; opp. UTOPIA (cf. CACOTOPIA). So dystopian n., one who advocates or describes a dystopia; dystopian a., of or pertaining to a dystopia; dystopianism, dystopian quality or characteristics.” The example of first usage given in the OED (1989 ed.) refers to the 1868 speech by John Stuart Mill quoted above. Other examples given in the OED include:

1952 NEGLEY & PATRICK Quest for Utopia xvii. 298 The Mundus Alter et Idem [of Joseph Hall] is…the opposite of eutopia, the ideal society: it is a dystopia, if it is permissible to coin a word. 1962 C. WALSH From Utopia to Nightmare 11 The ‘dystopia’ or ‘inverted utopia’. Ibid. 12 Stories…that seemed in their dystopian way to be saying something important. Ibid. ii. 27 A strand of utopianism or dystopianism. 1967 Listener 5 Jan. 22 The modern classics Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World and George Orwell’sNineteen Eighty Four are dystopias. They describe not a world we should like to live in, but one we must be sure to avoid. 1968 New Scientist 11 July 96/3 It is a pleasant change to read some hope for our future is trevor ingram … I fear that our real future is more likely to be dystopian.

Nähtavasti inglaste arvates üks kõige hullem olukord ühiskondlikult mis võib Inglismaa peal olla on kirjas nagu Orwell’i fiktsioonis „1984“.

Meie üks vastav rahvuslik/etniline sotsiaalne analoog võiks teaduspõhiselt olla stalinistlik/putinistlik kolonisatsioon (teaduspõhiselt „kolonisatsioon“ vt nt Fukuyama 2014) ja taolist olukorda minevikus suure tõenäosusega iseloomustas väga selgelt/ratsionaalselt järgmine maksiim:

‘‘Because it is not easy to recognize the enemy, the goal is achieved even if only five percent of those killed are truly enemies’’

Joseph Stalin

 Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42.

Muide selle maksiimi alusel on õigustatud mistahes riigi kodanikkonna täielik hävitamine kuni see ei ole 96% ulatuses stalinistlikult russifitseeritud: vt ka „Valge raamat … 2005“ (olemas võrguteavikuna).

Igal juhul ei ole düstoopia puhul tegemist teadusliku kontseptsiooniga (mis peab olema varustatud tõenäosustega ning teoreemidega jne ja mitte ainult fantaasiatega): seega riigimehel ei tohiks selle ilukirjandusliku ja Nietzsche’i hägusloogilise filosoofilise kontseptsiooniga (tuhandeid lehekülgi ilma ühegi teoreemita) mingit pistmist olla teaduspõhises ELis: sest see kategoriseerub makro-informatsiooniteoreetiliselt populismi ja demagoogia valdkonda „rämps sisse – rämps välja“ vt nt:

SUNSTEIN, CASS R.; REID HASTIE (2015) „Garbage in, garbage out? Some micro sources of macro errors“ – Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 11 / Issue 03 / September 2015, pp 561-583

Ja vt ka nt: Olga Zeydina and Bernard Beauzamy: Probabilistic Information Transfer. ISBN: 978-2-9521458-6-2, ISSN : 1767-1175. Size 15,3 x 24 cm. Hardcover, 208 pages.

In real life situations, one rarely has desirably detailed information.

It is sometimes incomplete and fragmental, sometimes corrupted and distorted, or with missing or erroneous data, sometimes fuzzy  etc.

Conversely, some pieces of information do exist. Therefore, there is a natural wish: to try to use the existing information in order to reconstruct some missing items.

However, this should be done with two constraints:

First, one should not add any artificial information or fuzzy logic, such as model assumptions (for instance, that some growth is linear, or that some law is Gaussian) without rigorous proof  and not calculating connected risks;

Second, the result should be of probabilistic nature: we do not want a precise value for the reconstruction, but a probability law, which allows estimation of the uncertainties and risks explicitly

The book gives one possibly credible way to deal these kind of topics like that.

Üks lõik: http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/BB_Archimedes_Weighing_2013_07.pdf

 

P.S.: muideks majandusteoreetikute hulgas on teada kapitalismi üks utoopia – on välja töötatud nimetuse all „agatoopia“ – nii vist et kui kodanik sünnib siis saab kohe automaatselt rahvusliku kogumajanduse nimeliseks aktsionäriks kogu residentseks eluks vist jne.

 

 

mai 28, 2016 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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