Ülo Ennuste majandusartiklid

Hästi aheldatud Prometheus’ed – Mihkel Mutt (2016) „EESTI ÜMBRLÕIKAJA“ Fabian, 206lk

 

Juba esimestest lehekülgedest on tunda kalvinistlikku stiilset vaimusugulust Andre Gide’i (1925 Pariis) „HALVASTI AHELDATUD PROMETHEUS“ „LOOMINGU“ RAAMATUKOGU 1969 Prantsuse keelest tõlkinud Jaan Kaplinski 47lk jutustusega –  mõlemad algavad episoodidega Euroopa suurlinnade sumedatel bulvaritel Prometheus’likus kaliibris vaimumagnaatide aktsioonidega.

M.M. romaanis lk178 situatsioon jõuab dilemmani: „Aga migrandid? Eestisse saabus esialgu kuusteist pagulast. Toompeal toimus meeleavaldus, kus osales sada viiskümmend inimest, kes nõudsid, et neil kuueteistkümnel ei lubataks ühte ja samasse kohta elama jääda, sest niimoodi võivad nad getostuda.“ – siinkohal M.M. poliitkorrektsusega kindlalt aheldatud euro-Prometheustel on sünnis suud kinni hoida selle fakti koha pealt et Eestis on arvukalt venekeelseid getosid tuhandeid kordi suuremate asukate arvuga – selge et sellelt leheküljelt kogu romaan muutub poliitkorrektorlikuks absurdiks eriti hübriidsõja määramatustes** –  vähemal kalvinistlikult ning võrreldes A.G. halvasti aheldatud vaimuhiidude suhtes – ja – seda veelgi enam eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse püsimise suhtes***.

*) Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity. – Journal of Development Economics 115 32–44.

ja

Mägi, Kadi; Kadri Leetmaa, Tiit Tammaru, Maarten van Ham (2016) „Types of spatial mobility and change in people’s ethnic residential contexts“ – DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VOLUME 34, ARTICLE 41, PAGES 1161−1192 PUBLISHED 28 JUNE 2016 http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol34/41/ DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.41:

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol34/41/default.htm

ja

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus: Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing:

Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 

**) Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen); School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn: 245lk:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

 

 

***) Ennuste, Ülo (2016) https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

P.S.: Tõsi – Mihkel Mutt on siin romaani formaati täiendanud: lõpetades päevakkajalise romaani kaasaegsetest etnilis-poliitilistest konfliktidest hoopiski poliitiliselt korrektse asendusteemaga Rooma Riigi lagunemise populaarse narratiiviga – erinevalt Andre Gide’i novellist mis jääb idiosünkraatsesse kaasaega. Ometi oleks võinud leida teema kohta paljude skolaaride värskeid uurimusi mis teaduspõhiselt ei piirdu prognoosimisel ainult protsessi eeslmiste seisundite regressiooniga – vaid eeskätt arvestavad tänapäeva tingimusi (mitte enam antiik kotkad ei tiirle Ateena kohal vaid droonid) riikidevaheliste suurte paneelide regresseerimise teel analüüsitakse olulisi faktoreid – nt:

 Ethnic diversity and conflict
Abstract

We argue that the reason why it has proved hard to determine whether negative effects on economic performance and conflict are more strongly associated with polarized rather than fractionalized societies is because the distinction between polarization and fractionalization is only relevant for societies with ethnic diversity above a certain threshold. In addition, high levels of ethnic fractionalization at a country level are generally associated with regional concentration of minorities, and as a result, many regions may have a very different ethnic composition from the national average, and in particular, they may have much higher levels of ethnic polarization than the national level. Because of the very different ethnic composition of different regions in this situation, conflict is more likely to be confined to a limited geographical area.

Copyright
Corresponding author
*Email: michael.bleaney@nottingham.ac.uk
**Email: a.dimico@qub.ac.uk
Linked references
HideAll

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

D.Acemoglu , S.Johnson , and J. A.Robinson (2002), ‘Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117: 12311294.

A.Alesina , R.Baqir , and W.Easterly (1999), ‘Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114 (4): 12431284.

A.Alesina , A.Devleeschauwer , W.Easterly , S.Kurlat , and R.Wacziarg (2004), ‘Fractionalization’, Journal of Economic Growth, 8: 155194.

R. J.Barro (1991), ‘Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2): 407433.

P.Barron , K.Kaiser , and PradhanMenno , (2009), ‘Understanding Variations in Local Conflict: Evidence and Implications from Indonesia’, World Development, 37 (3): 698713.

L.Becchetti , P.Conzo , and A.Romeo (2014), ‘Violence, Trust, and Trustworthiness: Evidence from a Nairobi Slum’, Oxford Economic Papers, 66 (1): 283305.

C.Blattman and E.Miguel (2010), ‘Civil War’, Journal of Economic Literature, 48 (1): 357.

M. F.Bleaney and A.Dimico (2011), ‘How Different are the Correlates of Onset and Continuation of Civil Wars?’, Journal of Peace Research, 48 (2): 145155.

P.Collier and A.Hoeffler (1998), ‘On Economic Causes of Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, 50 (4): 563573.

P.Collier and A.Hoeffler (2004), ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (4): 563595.

P.Collier , A.Hoeffler , and D.Rohner (2009), ‘Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, 61 (1): 127.

P.Collier , A.Hoeffler , and M.Söderbom (2004), ‘On the Duration of Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research, 41 (3): 253273.

W.Easterly and R.Levine (1997), ‘Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112 (4): 12031250.

J.Esteban and D.Ray (1994), ‘On the Measurement of Polarization’, Econometrica, 62 (4): 819851.

J.Esteban and D.Ray (2011), ‘Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization’, American Economic Review, 101: 13451374.

J.Esteban , L.Mayoral , and D.Ray (2012), ‘Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study’, American Economic Review, 102: 13101342.

J. D.Fearon (2003), ‘Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country’, Journal of Economic Growth, 8(2): 195222.

J. D.Fearon (2004), ‘Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?’, Journal of Peace Research, 41 (3): 275301.

J. D.Fearon and D. D.Laitin (2003), ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’, The American Political Science Review, 97 (1): 7590.

J. D.Fearon and D. D.Laitin (2011), ‘Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War’, World Development, 39 (2): 199211.

J.Gardeazabal (2011), ‘Linguistic Polarization and Conflict in the Basque Country’, Public Choice, 149: 405425.

J.Heckman (1979), ‘Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error’, Econometrica, 47: 153161.

H.Hegre and N.Sambanis (2006), ‘Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50 (4): 508535.

R.Kanbur , P. K.Rajaram , and A.Varshney (2011), ‘Ethnic Diversity and Ethnic Strife. An Interdisciplinary Perspective’, World Development, 39 (2): 147158.

P.Lujala , N. P.Gleditsch , and E.Gilmore (2005), ‘A Diamond Curse? Civil War and a Lootable Resource’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49 (4): 538556.

E.Miguel and M. G.Gugerty (2005), ‘Ethnic Diversity, Social Sanctions, and Public Goods in Kenya’, Journal of Public Economics, 89 (11–12): 23252368.

E.Miguel , S.Satyanath , and E.Sergenti . (2004), ‘Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach’, Journal of Political Economy, 112 (4): 725753.

J.Montalvo and M.Reynal-Querol (2005a), ‘Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars’, American Economic Review, 95 (3): 769813.

J.Montalvo and M.Reynal-Querol (2005b), ‘Fractionalization, Polarization and Economic Development’, Journal of Development Economics, 76 (2): 293323.

J.Montalvo and M.Reynal-Querol (2010), ‘Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars’, Economics of Governance, 11 (2): 123143.

D.Rohner , M.Thoenig , and F.Zilibotti (2013), ‘Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda’, Journal of Economic Growth, 18: 217252.

N.Sambanis (2004), ‘What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48 (6): 814859.

G.Schneider and N.Wiesehomeier (2010), ‘Diversity, Conflict and Growth: Theory and Evidence’, Diversity, 2: 10971117.

A. F.Tollefsen , H.Strand , and H.Buhaug (2012), ‘PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure’, Journal of Peace Research, 49 (2): 363375.

A.Wimmer and L. E.Cederman (2009), ‘Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set’, American Sociological Review, 74 (2): 316337.

P.S.P.S.: Rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse konjektuurimise ja projitseerimise rakursist jääb ilmselt autori kompetents kahvatuks kaasaegse sotsio-küberneetilisest rakursist nt: a) Maarjamaalt ei page kapitalid (sh inim- ja finants-kapital) parasjagu eeskätt mitte selle poolest et siin suhthead ingl pidgini oskust Ida-Euroopa kontekstis – vaid ikkagi ilmselt rohkem Kremli uue kolonisatsiooni ning tuumarünnakute hirmust b) seejuures putinoidid toetuvad sellele et eelmises poolesajandilises okupatsioonis suudeti siin elanikkonna rahvuslik struktuur suuresti paduvenestada ja rahvuslik teadmusstruktuur kahetsusväärselt hägustada obskurantistlikuks nt et natsionalism olevat igal juhul kurjast ja rahvusriik olevat dystoopia ning küüditamine olevat ratsionaalne jne (tõenduseks vt ülalolevaid tosinaid teadusosundusi mida autor ei ole enda teksti Bayes’likult endogeneseerinud) c) M.M. postuleerib et Alam-Kolkaküla on täielikult eestikeelne – seega liiglihtsustab ja kahetsusväärselt heidab kõrvale hübriidsõja määramatuste tingimuses meile siin praegu eksistentsiaalse idiosünkraatia (vt A.G. 1969 lk9) mis moodsas sootsiumide teoorias on tuntud kui polaarne/diametraalne (täieliselt vastandlik) etniline hetrogeensus – faktor millega Kreml manipuleerib.

Advertisements

detsember 4, 2016 - Posted by | Uncategorized

Kommentaare veel pole.

Lisa kommentaar

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Muuda )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Muuda )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Muuda )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Muuda )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: